Getting the facts right

(I have been going through the hundreds of unpublished articles that I had originally intended to post to this blog, but for many reasons I never completed. Most are being deleted as they are no longer relevant or have been said better elsewhere. A few are worthy of resuscitation, and while this article composed in August 2020 refers to a specific event, the message I intended to convey still holds true today.)

---

It’s really no wonder some people dream up some very imaginative scenarios based on so called reliable media sources. It only takes a minor error or oversight in reporting to give others a completely false idea.

Take for example this article from Reuters on 21 August 2020 which includes the statement “The attack led to a ban on firearms in New Zealand“. No it didn’t. This is a case of sloppy reporting by a reputable news organisation, and it’s the type of wildly inaccurate reporting that gets blown out of proportion by those living in other parts of the world, and in particular by the pro gun lobby in America.

I don’t intend this article to either an argument for or against the ownership of firearms, although I should state that I support strong gun control. I’m going to assume that the majority of those who believe in the right to bear arms are reasonable and rational beings. In the US, the courts have determined that the constitution guarantees the right to bear arms, and I have no intention to argue that.

Not only are our laws irrelevant to the situation in America, our laws do not not impinge on our freedom nor our personal safety. But first some myths that require correcting.

How many guns in New Zealand?

That question cannot be answered with any certainty. A firearms licence is required to own a gun or to use a gun without supervision, but up to now there has been no gun registration regime in this country. So what facts are known?

• Best estimates of the number of guns legitimately in circulation in New Zealand is somewhere between 1,200,000 and 1,500,000 guns of all types.
• There are approximately 250,000 licensed firearm owners.
• The number of guns estimated to be affected by the law change was somewhere between 50,000 and 150,000. It was not possible to get a more accurate picture as guns are not registered.
• Approximately 57,000 guns were handed in during the government buy-back scheme.
• Not all licensed firearm owners own a gun. Many hold a license in order to be able to use a gun in the course of their employment (pest control, hunting tour guides for example) or for recreational hunting. In such case the guns may be owned by an employer or a recreational group.
• The carrying of any weapon for the purpose of self defence is not lawful in this country. That applies to knives, pepper spray, bows and arrows, and baseball bats just as much as it does to guns. Even carrying a screwdriver for the purpose of self defence is illegal. The law change does not alter this.

The first mistake the pro gun lobby make is to assume that one in four Kiwis own a gun. This is patently false. They get this figure by dividing the population (5 million) by the estimated number of guns (1.25 million), completely ignoring the fact that there are only 250,000 registered gun owners. A more accurate figure is one in twenty Kiwis hold a firearms license and even fewer actually own a firearm. Those who do hold a firearms licence own many guns.

Inaccurate reporting has resulted in two distinct and contradictory perceptions by many Americans.

1. All guns have been confiscated and Kiwis are “defenceless” against criminals and an authoritarian government
2. Kiwis thumbed their noses at gun confiscation and the government’s ban has been a complete failure.

The myth that Kiwis have had their guns confiscated is widespread on the internet. Confiscation was never the intent – only specific types of guns, perhaps 5% of those in circulation were re-classified so that they could not be legally owned on a category A firearms licence, and the government offered a buy back scheme for those affected. In fact the estimated number of guns in circulation still remains about the same as before, as has been stated previously the estimated number of firearms in circulation vary by 300,000 or more.

The pro gun lobby also get the facts wrong when they refer to the “failure” of the government buyback scheme after those guns were reclassified. Remember that the number of firearms in circulation that were reclassified is unknown but estimates vary between 50,000 and 150,000.

Around 57,000 weapons were handed in during the buyback amnesty period. The reasons why the pro gun lobby argue it was a failure are based on erroneous calculations.

• Few Kiwis handed in their guns: This argument assumes there was requirement for all gun owners to hand in all their guns. They compare their estimated (but wildly inaccurate) number of gun owners in the country (1.25 million) and the number of guns handed in (57 thousand). Using this calculation they claim that less than 5% of gun owners handed in their weapons and that 95% of NZ gun owners have thumbed their nose at the government. This is the stance taken by the NRA.
• Few guns were handed in: Again an error based on the basis that all guns had to be handed in. They compare the estimated number of guns (1.25 million) and the number handed in (57 thousand) and conclude that less than 5% of all guns were handed in.

Their conclusion is that the citizens of Aotearoa New Zealand are openly defying draconian regulations imposed by a fascist/Marxist/authoritarian government hell bent on eliminating the last of our few remaining freedoms. This is just as false as the belief that all guns have been confiscated.

There is more than enough misinformation floating around to satisfy almost every nutcase and conspiracy theorists. When supposedly reputable sources provide “confirming” evidence through sloppy reporting we shouldn’t be very surprised.

As to the relative levels of freedom that Kiwis and Americans enjoy. Even though we don’t have guns to “protect” ourselves, I am admittedly biased and see Aotearoa as being significantly more free than America. Our gun ownership laws do not impinge on our freedoms, and in fact make this nation much safer and ensures we remain free. I do intend to look at the relative freedoms of our two nations at some time in the (hopefully not too distant) future.

New Zealand sets up mandatory quarantine ‘camps’ for COVID patients

Anyone who values freedom should take note because the Kiwis have a terrifying new response to rising covid case numbers. They are throwing people into quarantine camps.

Fox News ‘The Ingraham Angle‘

Please watch The Ingraham Angle video clip to ensure you have the full background of the facts before reading the rest of this post.

---

Pretty terrifying isn’t it? Just imagine being locked up just because you don’t want to take a test. What ever will they do next to take away our freedoms?

Except it’s hardly a new response. These so called quarantine ‘camps’ (some conservative right wing sources call them internment camps) have been around for the last six months. I don’t know why it has taken Fox and The Ingraham Angle so long to discover this story. As for Ardern’s ‘announcement’, it’s actually part of an interview that took place some time after the ‘camps’ were established – if I recall correctly, several weeks, perhaps a month, after the ‘camps’ were first announced. So it’s factually incorrect to describe Jacinda Ardern’s words as an announcement. Perhaps I’m being picky, but I do like to get the facts right.

Taking the story at face value, it would seem that New Zealand residents who refuse a COVID-19 test are being thrown into quarantine camps indefinitely until they submit to a test. It would also appear that in spite of the such draconian measures, infection rates are rising.

It would seem appropriate to seek more information on two important points:

• are people being thrown into quarantine ‘camps’ for refusing a test?
• are coronavirus cases really rising?

Number in ‘camps’

So how many people are in ‘camps’? Dozens? Hundreds? Thousands? The clip doesn’t provide that information. At any time there’s around five or six thousand people in quarantine ‘camps’, but the ‘camps’ or not filled by local residents whether or not they have refused a test, nor whether or not they might be infected with COVID-19. The “detainees” are travellers who have just arrived in New Zealand.

Anyone wishing to travel to Aotearoa New Zealand must pre-book accomodation in one of these ‘camps’ before they purchase a flight to this country. In other words it’s part of a package deal if one wishes to travel to these islands. Every country has measures at the border to reduce the possible harm that travellers might bring into the country. COVID-19 is simply another potential harm added to the list of harms.

Does that sound like “throwing people into quarantine camps” to you? Yes, it’s an inconvenience for anyone wishing to travel here, but it means those living here have complete freedom to do whatever they want, congregate wherever they want in crowds as large as they want – even in stadiums with 50,000 other individuals without being required to wear face masks or to socially distance.

It means that we as residents carry on much as we did before the pandemic and all businesses apart from those in the tourism sector operate as they always have. The pandemic as ensured that international tourism is buggered world wide for the time being irrespective of what restrictions this country imposes at the border.

There’s more than one type of ‘camp’

And let’s clarify what is meant by quarantine ‘camps’. This Foxnews term actually refers to two different types of facilities. Both types of facilities are located within hotels, almost all of which have a 4-star or 5-star rating.

• Managed isolation facilities: these are for travellers to NZ who are well but have a risk of having COVID-19. In other words travellers who have been in or passed through a region where community transmission of the virus exists. At this point in time that means the rest of the world, but it’s likely that regions of Australia, and parts of south and east Asia will be deemed community transmission free before the end of the year or early in the New Year. My hunch is that America will possibly be one of the last places to go covid free.
  
  Tests are carried out on travellers on day three and day twelve of isolation. If both are negative, the traveller is free to leave on day fourteen. If either test is positive, the traveller is transferred to a quarantine facility. A refusal to have a test is, I believe, treated as if a test had been positive.
  
• Quarantine facilities: These are for travellers who have been diagnosed with COVID-19, have COVID-19 symptoms or have been in close contact with someone with suspected, probable or confirmed COVID-19 in the past 14 days.
  
  These facilities have additional medical staff to cater for non-critical COVID-19 cases. Critical cases are transferred to public hospitals. Once the traveller is deemed to be COVID-19 free they can leave. If a traveller refuses to have a test, then they will be required to remain in quarantine for an additional fourteen days and remain symptom free, after which they will be free to leave.

Clearly, if you’re symptom free, the normal time for isolation is 14 days, or 28 days if the traveller refuses testing. Unless you’re a COVID-19 denier or conspiracist, such measures are unlikely to be considered oppressive or unreasonable given the nature of the pandemic. The measures have a sound scientific footing for a community that wishes to enjoy the benefits of freedom as we have historically practised it and be coronavirus free at the same time. How many other places have that level of freedom?

Rising covid case numbers

As for the rising covid case numbers, it’s true that it has increased recently, but none of these are due to community transmitted cases. The Ingraham Angle makes the implication that it is rising within the community. It is not. All the cases involve travellers in managed isolation – they have caught the virus while overseas, on their way here, or less likely while in isolation. The biggest number of cases recently have been in travellers from Russia who are replacement crew for fishing vessels operating from New Zealand. at one stage they were responsible for around 12 cases in a single day – an astronomical number for this country. They will be quarantined until they are Covid free.

The simple truth is that that we in Aotearoa New Zealand are virus free, and enjoy freedoms that most other places, including America, can only dream about for the time being. There is no draconian authoritarian regime restricting our freedom nor throwing the sick or dissidents into camps. The video clip is no more that a selection of half truths cobbled together to tell a whopping lie. A perfect example of Fake News™.

As for why this fake news is created at all, this Daily Blog article seems to cover it

To Alex Berenson: You’re so wrong!

I am aware that Alex Berenson is somewhat of a controversial author, but if his recent claim about indefinite detentions in Aotearoa New Zealand is so wildly inaccurate, how factual are his comments about other causes he promotes? Fact checking on the situation on Aotearoa New Zealand is so simple, that Berenson’s comment borders on being hilarious.

According to a recent tweet, Berenson claims that people here are being detained indefinitely:

https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1282059985288036358

Knowing Berenson’s opposition to the way most nations are managing the pandemic, I don’t know whether his tweet is a genuine misunderstanding of the context, or he is being deliberately disingenuous.

Let’s get the story straight shall we?

• Currently our borders are closed to everyone attempting to enter the country except for NZ citizens, residents and those who have qualified for special exemptions. There is no restriction on anyone leaving the country.
• Everyone arriving in New Zealand must go into managed isolation for two weeks.
• There is a high level of trust required of those in isolation. They are put up in mostly 4 and 5 star hotels at taxpayer expense and the facilities are made “secure” by the way of temporary fencing of the type typically seen around construction sites. As has been demonstrated by one “escapee”, it is very easy to cut the plastic ties that hold the fencing together.
• Of the more than 30,000 people that have passed through managed isolation, just four have broken the rules and left the premises where they were isolated without gaining permission.
• There is no indefinite confinement. The statement that thousands of people will be quarantined in isolation facilities for months and possibly years was in reference to the protocol of requiring inbound travellers to isolate for 2 weeks in managed isolation.
• When the 2 week isolation period is up, the returnees are free to go about their lives as we all are: no social distancing; no masks; unrestricted crowd sizes; sports facilities, bars, restaurants, nightclubs etc operate as normal. In other words, business as normal.
• There is no community transmission of COVID-19 in Aotearoa New Zealand
• The NZ COVID-19 cases being reported to WHO are those of people in managed isolation who tested positive within the managed isolation period. In other words, they contracted the virus before arriving in the country.
• If it wasn’t for the fact that most countries have failed to get COVID-19 under control, this country would have no need for border restrictions at all.

While I’d like to think that it was a genuine error on Berenson’s part, the fact that he has not removed the tweet or made a correction is telling.

Perhaps what is less surprising is the fact that so many people accept the tweet as factually correct, even though many Kiwis have replied, made it clear the comments by Michael Baker, professor of public health at Otago University have been taken entirely out of context. In fact a quick scan of the comments and retweets seem to indicate that only Kiwis are contesting the accuracy of Berenson’s tweet. Is the rest of the world really so ignorant and willing to believe a lie?

As one Kiwi tweeted “Who needs comedy when you have Americans on Twitter”. With that, I can’t help but nod my head in agreement.

Thousands buy into conspiracy theories

Sigh. Even in Aotearoa New Zealand, roughly 5% of the population are convinced (hard core) conspiracy theorists. Up to another 25% believe some level of conspiracy. The audio clip below cites the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior as an example.

https://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/remote-player?id=2018689498