To all those who have been so absolutely certain that this nation has gone mad because we went into lockdown less than 24 hours after a single covid-19 infection was discovered in the community, here’s why.
We’re in day five of the lockdown, and that one case has now grown to 72 cases, and there are now 8,667 close contacts who are required to isolate at home. There’s also 280 places of interest – places visited by individuals while they were infectious. These include potential superspreader locations such as a church, a gym, a lecture theatre, a public hospital, and six schools.
Waste water testing, which covers over 70% of the population has detected the Delta variant in a locality where there is currently no known covid case. It’s unlikely to be a recovered case still shedding RNA fragments as Delta is a very recent arrival in this country. If lockdown had been delayed for even a day, I’m sure that the number of contacts would be at least an order of magnitude larger than it is. If the authorities had delayed for several days, it would have been too late to put the covid genie back in the bottle.
Aotearoa New Zealand has a highly efficient and effective track and trace system, and genome sequencing has been carried out on every covid infection since the pandemic first arrived on these shores. To date, this has served us well and for most of the time we have had the freedom to move about and congregate in the same manner as before Covid arrived. Delta is a gamechanger.
What has become apparent is that with the Delta variant, a person can become infectious less than 24 hours after first being infected, and before becoming symptomatic. What this means is that if I were to catch delta right now, I’d be capable of transmitting it to someone else before this time tomorrow. But it could be another day or so before I recognise flu like symptoms and seek a test. In this country, most of those who are infected with the Delta variant are younger (typically in their 20s), more gregarious and socially mobile. This allows Delta to spread so much more rapidly than other variants, and has the potential to overwhelm the track and trace system, not to mention the entire health system.
All premises and places open to the public are required to display a Covid QR code for anyone to scan as they enter. I’ve been scrupulous in scanning in everywhere I go, but I’m an exception. As I’ve commented elsewhere on this blog, I estimate less than 10% of the public actually bother to scan. Due to Delta, this is about to change.
Locations where mask wearing isn’t always practical such as restaurants, cafes, churches, bars, etc, and events and locations that are potential superspreaders, will be required to enforce QR scanning. Personally I’d like to see it extended to include all retail outlets and places of business. But I understand placing the onus on the retailer to enforce compliance might be problematic.
On the other hand, I see scanning as a social responsibility, and I see no reason why the onus to do so shouldn’t be on me rather than the owner of the premises or event. As a member of society, I have responsibilities to do or not do certain activities, and I don’t see why this shouldn’t include scanning QR codes as well.
As new information comes to hand – the covid website is now being updated regularly, every two hours, with statistics and places of interest – I’m certain that an extension to the lockdown will be announced tomorrow. For how long, and how we’ll step back down from Alert Level 4 to Alert Level 1, I’m not sure as my crystal ball seems rather cloudy at the moment. I’d like to think that regions outside of those where known covid cases exist will be relaxed by the end of the month, but as this is all unknown territory – no other nation has eliminated the Delta variant – time will eventually reveal how this will all play out. Being forever optimistic, and having been through it once before, I expect it will be “business as usual” by the end of September. But just in case, I’ll keep my fingers and toes crossed.
To all those who claim that covid is not potentially dangerous, and often quote deaths per 100,000 of the general population to support their argument, case fatalities tell a very different story, depending on where you happen to reside. For example, if you live in the Yemen and catch covid, you have a one in five chance of dying. In Peru you have a one in ten chance of dying and in Mexico, a one in 12 chance. In the UK it’s one in fifty and the US one in sixty. They are not odds I’m prepared to gamble with. In NZ the odds of dying are around one in 110.
Given that the fatality rate for the Delta variant is similar to other variants even though it affects more younger people, it seems logical to assume the odds of a person in my age bracket dying from the Delta variant will be many times greater than the average – perhaps as much as ten times greater. That would increase the odds of me dying to somewhere in the vicinity of one in ten if I’m unlucky enough to catch covid. If you consider your “right” to spread a potentially fatal illness surpasses my right not to be isolated for the rest of my natural life, then you deserve everything society throws a you. Hopefully it’ll be a ton of bricks.
The good news is that this country no longer needs to ration covid vaccinations as supplies are now meeting demand. Vaccinations are now ramping up and as from the end of August, everyone over the age of twelve will be able to book their shots. Supplies are now guaranteed to ensure everyone will be able to be be fully vaccinated by year’s end.