2362 contacts

20 Aug, 2021 by Barry 5 Comments

At time of writing there are now 2362 known contacts related to the current delta outbreak that started with a single covid case identified on Tuesday. Of those contacts, 31 are known to be infected with covid, three outside of Auckland, and more than 300 of the contacts are dispersed throughout the country, including the South Island. This is precisely what I predicted in yesterday’s blog post. In just three days, a single known infection has snowballed to almost two and a half thousand contacts.

We’ve also learnt that we will not be coming out of lockdown tonight (I didn’t think we would, but I was hopeful we might). The nation will remain in lockdown until at least midnight on Tuesday. The three infected individuals outside of Auckland were there over the weekend, one group returning to Wellington by air, the other by car, stopping at four petrol stations and a similar number of cafes on the way. This will give rise to considerably more contacts needing to be traced, and given the number of places these three travellers passed through I can see the number swelling by several hundred at least. And of course any new infections discovered between now and Tuesday are also likely to result in dozens of addition contacts.

Thankfully, by Monday, if everyone has been following the rules, new contacts should have dropped off to near zero, barring the possibility that an essential worker is infected but has escaped detection. I doubt we’ll immediately drop from alert level 4 back to alert level 1 (near normal but with closed border) on Tuesday, but my guess we’ll drop to alert level 3 (a less restrictive lockdown) for a week or perhaps two then to alert level 2 (restrictions on large gatherings) for a similar period before returning to alert level 1. Unlike most of the rest of the world, we’ve been been living near to a normal life since May 2020 – well as normal is possible given that the rest of the world continues to flounder hopelessly in a sea rising infections. and I expect we’ll return to normality in a few weeks from now.

Today, I read the comments on a few Youtube clips pertaining to the lockdown. I wish I hadn’t. As well as the usual range of conspiracy theorists, there were those that have no understanding of what exponential means or how it plays out, those who judge nations on the gender and/or sexual orientation of the leaders (the Prime Minister is a woman and the Deputy Prime Minister is gay), those who judge a nation on the physical appearance of the leaders, and those who find it implausible for a nation to consider their leaders trustworthy.

What I find surprising, but perhaps I shouldn’t, is that so many Youtube conversation threads degenerate into two camps: one camp being mostly Kiwis supporting New Zealand’s elimination stance, and in the other camp consisting mostly of non-Kiwis being anti-vaxxers, anti-maskers, covid hoaxers, and conspiracy theorists, most of whom believe this nation is under the control of a fascist or communist (take your pick) authoritarian dictatorship fighting a losing battle with covid. Any references to world freedom indexes, be they from a left wing think tank or a right wing think tank, ranking Aotearoa New Zealand the most free nation on the planet are written off as irrelevant. The vitriol (spouted from both sides) reminds me why I chose WordPress as my platform for expression instead of Youtube.

Even in regards to restrictions specifically related to covid, this country has much less stringent than most other nations, but our detractors don’t seem to be able to follow a simple chart. The detractors refuse to accept the evidence that even their “ideal” model of covid freedom, Sweden, is more restrictive than Aotearoa New Zealand:

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