Another Spectrum

Personal ramblings and rants of a somewhat twisted mind

Go hard, go early…

2 Comments

For the first time in 169 days a case of covid-19 has been found in the community. It’s never been a case of if it returned but a case of when. At time of writing, no link to the border or managed isolation has been found. The result of genome sequencing will be available by the morning and that should identify the variant, if it is related to any known border contact or managed isolation source, and if so how many degrees of separation between that source and the single known community case.

As there is currently no identified source and in recent months most cases arriving at the border have been the Delta variant, and having seen the outcome in Australia where lockdowns have been too little too late, the authorities here have decided to go early and hard.

I’m sure in many in other parts of the world people will find it difficult to fathom why a whole nation should go into a total lockdown on the day that a single covid case is discovered in the community, especially as many nations are gradually coming out of various states of long term lockdowns or restrictions on social gatherings. Apart from the initial six week lockdown at the start of the pandemic, this country has been mostly in a state of “business as usual”, international tourism being the only exception.

However we only need to look across the ditch to Australia to see that by imposing minimum restrictions and then ramping up as they prove inadequate is not particularly effective. I don’t think they’ve reached the point of no return yet, but it must be getting closer by the day. In the other parts of the world, even where the rates of vaccination are high, hospitals are again experiencing overloads, and younger age groups are being affected compared to previous variants.

So for the first time since April 2020, Aotearoa New Zealand is going into a nationwide lockdown: one week for Auckland and the Coromandel, and 3 days for the rest of the country, starting a one minute before midnight tonight. Apart from essential services such as dairies (small convenience stores), supermarkets, pharmacies, petrol stations, and medical and emergency services the nation will shut down. Movement outside our household bubbles will be restricted to accessing essential services or exercising in our neighbourhoods.

Masks have not been mandated here apart from on public transport, and it’s still rare to see them being worn in other public places. That might change in the next 24 hours. The Prime Minister has hinted that there may be some changes and they have been discussed in Cabinet, but until the regulations have been draughted and gone through the necessary legal processes, she will not speculate on what might change. I expect we will need to wear masks when going to the supermarket for the duration of the lockdown, perhaps a little longer.

This country is some way behind many other OECD nations when it comes to the rollout of the COVID vaccination. The prime reason is due to supply, but everyone over the age of sixteen will have the opportunity to be vaccinated before the end of the year. However, some ethnic groups – Māori and Pacifica in particular have relatively young populations. Even if everyone within those groups who are legible get a jab, it still leaves 30% of their population vulnerable. That’s not enough to provide herd immunity. It looks like those above twelve might soon be able to be protected, and I understand research is being undertaken on the safety and effectiveness of vaccinating those as young as 12 months.

Our borders are not going to open until herd immunity has been achieved. When that will be achieved is still open to speculation. I suspect that most Kiwis would prefer restrictions remain at the border rather than within it, and there is little appetite to open up to a covid ravaged world. For that reason I expect the any temporary restrictions imposed here will be be accepted with little opposition as it’s not much to pay for the freedoms we have enjoyed while the rest of the world has gone mad.

Author: Barry

A post war baby boomer from Aotearoa New Zealand who has lived with migraines for as long as I can remember and was diagnosed as being autistic aged sixty. I blog because in real life I'm somewhat backwards about coming forward with my opinions.

2 thoughts on “Go hard, go early…

  1. I totally get it. Go big when you have a chance of 100% success. The US will never get rid of Covid. It’s too ingrained and far reaching in our society. Ten years from now it will be a common everyday threat. I don’t think herd immunity will ever be possible with Covid. After vaccine, there doesn’t seem to be actual immunity, just protection against serious sickness. Plus variants will learn to bypass our vaccines and we’ll be forever chasing the virus. Those are my cheery thoughts for the day.

    • You may well be right about covid being around for the long haul. Tentative plans for opening our borders include maintaining QR scanning at all public places and contact tracing, and classifying arrivals at the border into risk categories which will allow some travellers to enter without quarantining, others being required to isolate “at home” while others will be required to go into managed isolation. All arrival require proof of vaccination and a negative test before departure to Aotearoa New Zealand.

      Personally, I’d be happy to QR scanning made mandatory as at present I estimate only 1 in 10 people bother to scan.

      With new variants being much more transmittable, tracing 80% of all possible contacts within 48 hours of a case being reported will be inadequate to prevent major outbreaks. This is important as it looks like this country will continue to maintain an elimination strategy for the foreseeable future.

      And this morning 4 more cases linked to yesterday’s case have been reported – all the Delta variant.

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